No es tanto la aparición de China o de otras potencias lo que amenaza la supremacía occidental, sino el fracaso progresivo de un capitalismo que olvida el valor del hombre.
Lionel Vairon

Francia / Economía – ¿China debe inquietarnos? Su surgimiento como actor relevante es, sin duda, el fenómeno central en las relaciones internacionales del siglo 21. Los profundos cambios políticos y económicos en curso revelan una transformación radical del orden internacional posterior a la II Guerra Mundial, orden que fue bipolar hasta la caída de la URSS y unipolar desde hace veinte años. La perspectiva de un mundo multipolar, como pareciera desearlo China, abre perspectivas desconocidas y por lo tanto eventualmente peligrosas.

Un antecedente importante es el debilitamiento estratégico de Estados Unidos tras el evidente fracaso de su política de Nation Building impulsada en Afganistán e Irak. Las intervenciones militares solo han conducido a una mayor desestabilización y a revueltas contra la dominación norteamericana. En tanto, las otras potencias, así como las nuevas alianzas entre naciones, parecen orientarse a una bunkerización de sus respectivos espacios estratégicos y no al proyecto de globalización y apertura propiciado por la filosofía liberal. Prevalece en ellas el impulso a fortalecer la seguridad, lo que conduce a atribuir a los extranjeros todos los males de la nación, a limitar o aun impedir los desplazamientos de las personas, y a armarse en demasía ante amenazas reales, exageradas o imaginarias. En un acto de desconfianza con respecto al Sur, la Unión Europea acepta que misiles estadounidenses, formalmente emplazados contra Irán y Corea del Norte, se instalen en el sur de España, dirigiéndose hacia el Mediterráneo.

Todo este escenario plantea un desafío importante: ¿el crecimiento de la seguridad de un Estado o de un grupo de Estados no debilita, acaso, la seguridad de los otros?

CHINA Y ESTADOS UNIDOS: DOS MODELOS

Lo anterior se señala actualmente a propósito de China y del persistente mito de que ella representaría una amenaza. Ampliamente rodeada por las fuerzas estadounidenses en el Océano Pacífico, el Océano Indico y Asia central, enfrentada a un discurso a menudo hostil de Washington y vinculada a una estrategia de alianzas con los Estados de su periferia (India, Vietnam, Japón, etc.), China promueve su modernización militar y refuerza sus capacidades de acción en un radio cada vez mayor, extendido más allá de su periferia inmediata. ¿Esta potencia militar creciente, que sueña con empujar la flota estadounidense en el Pacífico más allá de Guam para “liberar” su costa oriental de presiones foráneas, es finalmente defensiva u ofensiva? ¿Beijing trata efectivamente de reducir los medios de presión militar de los Estados Unidos, o bien prepara una nueva etapa de globalización de sus fuerzas para jugar un rol estratégicamente creciente en nuevas regiones alejadas de sus costas?

La respuesta no se relaciona solo con un análisis estratégico, sino que mucho más con un postulado ideológico: se tiende a aceptar —a pesar de que existen muchos detractores— que la potencia estadounidense es “benévola” y que solo pretende servir los intereses de la comunidad internacional. El senador Joe Biden declaraba hace poco: “Como lo he dicho a los dirigentes y al pueblo chino, EEUU es una potencia pacífica y lo seguirá siendo” (1). Este punto de vista ideológico se apoya en el mito de una nación norteamericana democrática y liberal que aspira, para beneficio de la mayoría, a convencer al resto del planeta de lo ejemplar que es su modelo político, económico y social. Ante esta idea, mantenida a pesar de las guerras de invasión y de las mentiras establecidas como regla de gobierno por ciertas administraciones —en particular, la de Bush jr.—, China, oficialmente comunista, es identificada necesariamente en el punto opuesto. Ella es considerada una potencia negativa que solo trata de conquistar el planeta por interés propio sin considerar los requerimientos de las otras naciones y que posee un sistema político, económico y social inquietante y discriminatorio.

ACTOR ECONÓMICO INELUDIBLE

La prosperidad económica occidental después de la II Guerra Mundial permitió a EEUU y Europa arrogarse el monopolio del poderío y de la definición de los valores positivos a escala planetaria. Su único adversario, la URSS, inmersa en sus contradicciones ideológicas internas y en la ineficacia de su modelo económico, no podía representar una alternativa para los otros miembros de la comunidad internacional o, al menos, era evidente que saldrían debilitados aquellos que pudieran estar tentados por el modelo de economía planificada.

La aparición en los años ‘70 de Japón y de los dragones asiáticos estaba bajo control. Todos ellos se situaban en laórbita occidental y eran muy dependientes, en particular enmaterias de seguridad. El caso de China representa, al contrario,un desafío mayor. Treinta años de reformas la condujerona liberarse de las restricciones que pesaban sobre losotros países asiáticos emergentes, construyendo un aparatoeconómico apoyado en un crecimiento medio anual de dosdígitos y ganando así independencia. En desafío a todas lasprevisiones, se elevó al 2º lugar de las economías delplaneta en 2011 y debería, dentro de dos decenios o antes,llegar al 1º lugar, por delante de EEUU. Eso nosignifica que China llegue a ser más poderosa, pero sí queserá un actor ineludible. Aunque la diferencia de PIB per cápitaentre ambos países será considerable, el poderío globalchino habrá alcanzado un punto sin retorno, independiente de las crisis por las cuales pueda pasar. Es, de hecho, eneste último período en el que se sitúan los riesgosmás importantes. En efecto, la fe tan sólidamente enraizadaen los espíritus norteamericanos de que EEUU es “la nación indispensable” —retomando la fórmula de laSecretaria de Estado Madeleine Albright (2)—constituye un sentimiento cercano al de “pueblo escogido”,que subyace en su nacionalismo y hace presagiar un períodode fuertes turbulencias entre sus futuros Gobiernos. Segúnalgunos, China estaría hoy en una situación similar a la de EstadosUnidos en 1947, en el umbral de un nuevo orden mundial. Para continuar con su desarrollo, ella debe en adelante modelar el sistema internacional según nuevos parámetros; no puede seguir siendo una potencia de statu quo, debe ser una potencia revolucionaria.

El sistema mundial, que gravitaba desde hace siglos alrededor del polo que constituía el Atlántico Norte, se ha acercado a potencias emergentes, China en particular. Esta nación prosigue su desarrollo pragmático al margen de ciertos principios erigidos por los occidentales como valores universales. El Estado chino tiene como preocupación central —aunque haya desviaciones personalistas— el interés de la colectividad nacional, en contraste con europeos y norteamericanos, cada vez más enredados en debates teóricos sobre el rol y el lugar del Estado, y en disputas estériles y mezquinas, que se suceden mientras partes importantes de sus economías se derrumban y grupos significativos de sus poblaciones se empobrecen.

POTENCIA ECONÓMICA Y MULTIPOLARIDAD

La multiplicación de foros internacionales —los “G+”—, que supuestamente regulan las relaciones económicas y financieras internacionales, y que ofrecen una participación creciente a las potencias emergentes, disimula apenas esta voluntad subyacente de mantener un orden mundial definido por los occidentales y amenazado por transformaciones profundas. Para un realista, como Henry Kissinger, antiguo Secretario de Estado, el G-20 debería encarnar el instrumento de ajuste principal de la comunidad internacional a este nuevo orden mundial. Pero, en la práctica, está paralizado por las oposiciones de fondo y evoluciona solo en el plano de los votos piadosos y las grandes declaraciones de autosatisfacción, sin acciones concretas que garanticen la seguridad mundial, la estabilidad financiera y el comercio abierto.

¿Sería la comunidad mundial capaz de organizarse en el mundo multipolar al cual aspiran China y las otras potencias emergentes? El clásico debate sobre multipolaridad reaparece en favor de la cruda realidad de la aparición de polos de poder que rivalizarían en un futuro no muy lejano y que serían capaces de sustituir al polo del Atlántico Norte. ¿Será capaz su poderío económico de dar a China una ventaja comparativa decisiva respecto del poderío global norteamericano? ¿No debería China adaptar hoy su estrategia a nivel internacional y aceptar responsabilidades mayores para promover esta “sociedad internacional armoniosa”, que se ha transformado en eje central de su política exterior desde 2004? Con un PIB per cápita nominal de alrededor de US$ 4 mil y una población de 730 millones de campesinos, ¿puede entrar a esta comunidad internacional y jugar un papel central semejante al de EEUU?

En realidad, no es tanto la aparición de China o de otras potencias lo que amenaza la supremacía occidental, sino el fracaso progresivo de un sistema liberal basado en un capitalismo financiero cuyo error principal ha sido olvidar el valor del hombre. El movimiento de los indignados, que se rebela contra desviaciones devastadoras de este modelo económico, indica una toma de conciencia ciudadana de los límites de la gestión liberal. La búsqueda por parte de la opinión pública occidental de un desarrollo más equilibrado, más igualitario, podría converger con las aspiraciones chinas de una sociedad armoniosa. Se trata efectivamente de la confrontación de dos tipos de sociedades. Como lo subrayaba un embajador norteamericano, “los emblemas actuales de Estados Unidos son los bombarderos, las tropas terrestres, los aviones no tripulados cargados de armas letales; China evoca, cada vez más, torres y multitud de grúas, ingenieros, contenedores cargados de bienes de consumo… Los chinos pagan cash, entregan mercaderías a cambio de dinero y no exigen de sus socios comerciales que se adapten a sus preferencias políticas o les ayuden a promover su agenda imperial, como lo hacía Estados Unidos. La integración asiática está impulsada por factores económicos y financieros, no por factores políticos o ideológicos” (4).

COMPETENCIA EN INFLUENCIA

La vía hacia el desarrollo elegida por China constituye precisamente la amenaza principal, no tanto debido a los dirigentes chinos sino a su influencia creciente sobre los países en desarrollo. A pesar de las múltiples declaraciones de buenas intenciones de Washington, que niega cualquier intención de cercar a China o de aplicar hacia ella una política de contención, la estrategia norteamericana claramente intenta mantener su influencia en Asia o su control en ciertas regiones. Estados Unidos, que se considera la primera potencia asiática por su presencia militar y por la cantidad de acuerdos bilaterales que ha firmado, se ve favorecido por las inquietudes legítimas que en los países del vecindario provocan ciertas manifestaciones de la nación china, muy particularmente en lo relativo al Mar de China meridional. La actitud de esta sobre la soberanía en la región ha levantado en los dos últimos años diversos interrogantes respecto a qué forma adoptaría su poderío una vez que acceda al estatuto de gran potencia. Es difícil determinar si se trata efectivamente del resurgimiento de ambiciones imperiales respecto a los vecinos o de la reacción a una estrategia norteamericana de asedio, motivada a su vez en la búsqueda de su propia seguridad. La presencia de fuerzas navales estadounidenses en la región y las intromisiones cada vez más frecuentes de la marina india bajo la mirada complaciente de Washington son consideradas por los dirigentes chinos como una amenaza inmediata que requiere una respuesta adecuada.

En tal contexto, el compromiso económico constituye, sin duda, el principal factor de estabilidad, a pesar de brotes periódicos de fiebre nacionalista que se dan en todos lados. China se transformó en el primer socio comercial de India, delante de EEUU, a pesar de la rivalidad estratégica que existe entre los dos países más poblados de Asia. Japón, pese a un pasado difícil, es absorbido por la fuerza de atracción de China, dada su creciente dependencia económica. Podría surgir en Asia un equilibrio de fuerzas, si las rivalidades entre ellas no son instrumentalizadas por fuerzas exteriores.

(1) “China`s rise isn`t our Demise”, New York Times, 7 de septiembre, 2010.
(2) “Somos el país más grande y estamos asumiendo el rol de una nación que se pregunta qué puede hacer para lograr un mundo más seguro para nuestros hijos y nietos, y para las personas en todo el orbe que respetan la ley”, 18 de febrero de 1998.
(3) Embajador Chas W. Freeeman jr., presentación en el foro “El cambio de Asia”, 17 de febrero de 2011.
____________
Lionel Vairon. Presidente de CEC Consulting. Esta es una versión extractada de un artículo publicado en Études, de diciembre de 2011, pp. 583-594. También fue íntegramente publicado en revista Mensaje, www.mensaje.cl

 
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