En este artículo se sugieren algunas claves para comprender las complejas y, en parte, difíciles relaciones de Estados Unidos con América Latina y las oportunidades que permanecen abiertas a pesar de las restricciones del escenario actual.
Marcos Robledo

Santiago / Temas – “El viaje inane de Obama”: con ese título resumió el diario El País de España la impresión generalizada que dejó la gira latinoamericana efectuada en marzo por el Presidente de Estados Unidos. Destinada a convertirse en un momento refundacional de la relación de ese país con la región después de un largo período de desencuentros, el resultado desconcertó a la mayoría de medios y elites regionales: fue una gira de alto valor simbólico y de gran importancia para El Salvador y Mesoamérica, pero sin contenidos sustantivos de envergadura continental que le permitan a Washington reasumir un liderazgo regional.
 
CARENCIA DE UNA POLÍTICA
 
Para tener una política no basta con principios generales válidos para cualquier momento, como democracia, derechos humanos, cooperación y desarrollo sustentable, sino que se deben formular objetivos precisos de alcance continental para un período de tiempo acotado. EE.UU. carece de una política hacia América Latina desde el año 2005. Ese año, en la Cumbre de Mar del Plata se produjo la muerte política de lo que hasta entonces había sido efectivamente una política estadounidense para la región: el proceso de Cumbre de las Américas.
 
Lanzada primero por el presidente George H. Bush, en 1990, y luego puesta en marcha en 1994 por su sucesor William Clinton durante la Cumbre de Miami, esa política fue muy exitosa desde una perspectiva histórica estadounidense. Permitió a ese país retomar un liderazgo que le ha sido históricamente esquivo y que no tenía sobre el conjunto de la región desde el término de la Segunda Guerra Mundial y que comenzó a deteriorarse tras la Revolución Cubana. Logró proponer una agenda comprehensiva que fue bien acogida en el concierto latinoamericano, cuyos países entonces se democratizaban y necesitaban poner en marcha reformas políticas, económicas y de modernización del Estado, que fueron organizadas en torno a la agenda del proceso de Cumbres que, por lo demás, en lo formal aún continúa vigente.
 
Sin embargo, la contramanifestación que lideró el presidente Hugo Chávez en Mar del Plata pero que organizó el anfitrión de la reunión, el mandatario argentino Néstor Kirchner (y que el brasileño Lula da Silva toleró pasivamente y hasta con simpatía), sepultó el Área de Libre Comercio para las Américas, ALCA —la iniciativa más importante de la política de Estados Unidos hacia la región— y dejó en claro que, por distintas razones, un grupo importante de Gobiernos de la región se oponía al ALCA. Fue un hecho que hizo evidente que incluso algunos consideraban al Consenso de Washington como la causa más importante de los problemas de las democracias de la región.
 
Desde entonces, Estados Unidos no tiene una política de alcance hemisférico y sus iniciativas son solo bilaterales, subregionales o ad hoc. Más aún, ha debido reaccionar ante una sucesión de crisis que han deteriorado su relación con la región y ha impedido el “nuevo comienzo” que propuso Obama en la Cumbre de Trinidad y Tobago el 2009. Entre otras —no las únicas—, la crisis de Honduras y el acuerdo con Bogotá sobre el uso de bases militares colombianas.
 
La pregunta es entonces por qué Estados Unidos no logra salir de esa postura defensiva y reactiva. Algunas respuestas suelen concentrarse en explicaciones relacionadas con la política interna estadounidense o las dinámicas globales, y pueden ser parcialmente correctas. Afirman que durante sus dos primeros años Obama ha debido enfrentar una agenda formidable de problemas que hasta hace poco lo habían debilitado muchísimo y que dejaron —una vez más— a América Latina entre sus prioridades más bajas. Otros han apuntado a dificultades más sustantivas, como la declinación relativa de la influencia global y regional de Estados Unidos, y el aumento del grado de autonomía de las regiones emergentes, incluida América Latina. Ambos factores parecen estar afectando la posibilidad de una agenda entre ambas partes, pero no parecen suficientes como explicaciones. A las restricciones domésticas y a su disminución relativa de recursos de poder, se debe agregar que Washington enfrenta dificultades crecientes para concertar políticas con los países más importantes de la región, dificultades que continúan siendo lo suficientemente relevantes como para impedir una base mínima de acuerdo en torno a una política continental compartida.
 
NUEVO ESCENARIO
 
Muchos observadores advierten que Brasil no se siente incómodo con esa situación, que no tiene prisas por construir un acuerdo, y que, si acaso es posible hacerlo, la negociación es ahora mucho más compleja y global. Así lo demostró el tema comercial, porque el ALCA finalmente fue subordinado a la Ronda de Doha. Brasil es ahora una potencia emergente global —quizás la más articulada políticamente junto con India— y negocia desde una posición de mayor autonomía y menor asimetría. México se encuentra subsumido en su crisis interna, concentra su energía en el NAFTA y en algunos foros globales, y no parece tener clara una vocación para disputar el liderazgo de manera sostenida en la política latinoamericana ni para liderar a las potencias emergentes. Y Argentina simplemente no oculta su desacuerdo con Washington. Por eso las crisis bilaterales que partieron en Mar del Plata se suceden, continuando con la del maletín el año 2009, hasta la última del avión este 2011. Y, a la falta de voluntad o de acuerdo con los tres grandes, se debe agregar a todo el ALBA, destacando Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador y Nicaragua.
 
Es por eso que construir una nueva agenda compartida de alcance hemisférico es hoy una tarea mucho más difícil y compleja de lo que ha sido desde hace mucho tiempo en la región, y está exigiendo a los Estados Unidos una capacidad de gestión política a niveles sin precedentes, así como a todas las instituciones multilaterales regionales. La región es simplemente más heterogénea. Por eso la política estadounidense se ha reducido a iniciativas que pueden ser importantes, pero limitadas en su alcance. Y es por eso que algunas iniciativas originales, no imaginables hasta hace poco y que incluso han sido exploradas desde Washington —como la posibilidad de que Estados Unidos construya acuerdos directos con UNASUR—, sencillamente han sido rechazadas por varios países del bloque porque su objetivo es marginar a la Casa Blanca de la región.
 
CAMBIAR LOS DÉFICITS POR OPORTUNIDADES
 
Lo anterior no significa que la política hemisférica se encuentre en un callejón sin salida, sino que la construcción de acuerdos demanda una mayor inversión de capital político y tiempo (lo que Obama no tiene), y que probablemente haya que pensarla desde una perspectiva diferente. Dos aspectos surgen aquí como parte de una ecuación más amplia.
 
El primero es que gran parte de la agenda sustantiva entre Estados Unidos con Argentina, Brasil y México se ha trasladado a foros globales, como el G 20. Por lo tanto, la construcción de coincidencias en temas importantes para la región va a depender en gran medida de la posibilidad de acuerdos sobre la gobernabilidad global y, por ende, sobre materias como la recuperación económica global, la reforma política de las instituciones políticas y financieras multilaterales, el cambio climático y la agenda de seguridad internacional. En ese marco, no deja de ser sintomático que el G20 todavía no alcance acuerdos importantes luego de las primeras medidas para enfrentar la crisis económica el 2009.
 
El segundo aspecto es que las dificultades de Estados Unidos con algunas naciones de la región también pueden ser una gran oportunidad para países medianos que tengan la capacidad de construir acuerdos regionales funcionales a los intereses de todos los actores. Ese fue el caso de Chile ante la crisis de Haití, como también lo fue su rol en la presidencia pro témpore de UNASUR para impedir el quiebre democrático en Bolivia y construir una mínima gobernabilidad sudamericana. Las posibilidades no terminan allí. La región podría construir un acuerdo para demandar su incorporación institucional al G 20 —es decir, como Grupo de Río, cuya presidencia actualmente ejerce Chile, o como Cumbre de América Latina y el Caribe—; podría fortalecer la institucionalidad regional para detener los retrocesos democráticos; o podría recuperar la dinámica de integración que prevaleció hasta la década de los noventa.
 
Sin embargo, la posibilidad de transformar el déficit de acuerdos regionales en oportunidades de cooperación dependerá de que los países con capacidad para hacer política de alcance latinoamericano actúen como brokers con credibilidad para EE.UU. y para la región. Ese fue uno de los efectos —por ejemplo— de la oposición de Chile a la invasión de Irak en 2004.
 
Sin embargo, sostener esa posición —que, además, tiene como efecto el fortalecimiento de la propia estatura regional e internacional de broker— exige que los países que aspiran a ser articuladores —y que no es lo mismo que ser líderes— rehúyan la tentación de posicionarse ideológicamente y dictaminar a los otros actores las políticas que deben adoptar. Este es un camino sencillo en el corto plazo, pero de altos costos en el mediano plazo, por el aislamiento que produce. Por el contrario, aprovechar los vacíos de cooperación continental demanda un ejercicio difícil, de persistente empatía y creatividad política, para identificar las oportunidades para la política regional en una coyuntura difícil para construir esos acuerdos.
 
Por todo lo anterior, la visita de Obama a Brasil, Chile y El Salvador, y su llamado a construir una agenda entre “iguales” en torno a seguridad ciudadana, comercio, desarrollo, empleo, crecimiento, energías limpias, democracia y derechos humanos, no deberían ser interpretados como pura retórica ni exclusivamente como reconocimiento al nuevo rol global de Brasil, a los logros de la democracia chilena, o al extraordinario simbolismo que tiene el proceso en El Salvador, especialmente para América Central, aunque también para el resto de la región.
 
Esa visita, la primera de carácter bilateral de un Presidente de Estados Unidos a Chile en siete años, parece haber sido entonces, por sobre todas las cosas, un mensaje que apela a la construcción de acuerdos, aunque probablemente debido a la conciencia sobre las limitaciones, evita incluso proponer tareas a la OEA. Y es un mensaje donde lo importante no es solo lo verbal, sino que también lo no verbal: un despliegue de capital político hacia las zonas de América Latina donde Estados Unidos tiene que dialogar (Brasil), pero también allí donde cree que quizás podría encontrar interlocutores que, al menos desde Washington, parecen ser percibidos como dotados de la legitimidad regional, de la capacidad estatal y de la voluntad política necesarias para hacer política regional y no solo vecinal o bilateral.
 
La próxima Cumbre de las Américas es el año 2012 en Cartagena de Indias, Colombia, y Obama se encuentra ante un difícil desafío: el de retirarse de esa reunión tal como lo hizo en Trinidad y Tobago, es decir, sin una declaración consensuada ni firmada por los Presidentes, o realizar un esfuerzo especial que confirme a la región que Estados Unidos no ha renunciado a una política hemisférica y que avance hacia la restauración del requebrajado y fragmentado multilateralismo regional. Los desafíos están a la vuelta de la esquina.
_____________
Marcos Robledo. Cientista político y periodista. Académico de ICSO-UDP y miembro de la Fundación Dialoga. Publicado en revista Mensaje, www.mensaje.cl

 
Revista Mirada Global © Copyright 2009
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