El alza de las materias primas básicas, y en general, continúan cada vez más trasladándose a los consumidores.
Santiago Brugal Almanza

La Habana / Economía – Todos los componentes de la inflación e incluso nuevas formas de la misma brotan por todas partes, disparando los costos de las materias primas básicas que se trasladan a los consumidores.

En estos últimos días las noticias son alarmantes, especialmente provenientes de los mercados emergentes y las economías desarrolladas como China, Brasil, Reino Unido y Estados Unidos, con las cotizaciones de los alimentos, el petróleo y sus derivados, y que ya se reflejan en todo tipo de productos, bienes y servicios.
 
Los grupos de minería del índice sectorial STOXX Europe 600 Basic Resources, registraban alzas de 1,4 por ciento. Los precios del oro subían a máximos de más de 1.375 dólares por onza, al igual que el resto de los metales preciosos y otros, por la debilidad de la moneda estadounidense y preocupaciones sobre el panorama de mediano plazo de la inflación.
 
Los indicadores de inflación suben como la espuma. En el último dato de Estados Unidos, los precios generales de las importaciones subieron 1,5 por ciento en enero respecto al mes anterior, según informó el Departamento del Trabajo.
 
La cifra representa un aumento de 5,3 por ciento respecto a enero de 2010. Al excluir los precios del petróleo, que tienden a ser más volátiles, los precios de las importaciones crecieron 1,1 por ciento en enero respecto a diciembre, y 3,2 puntos porcentuales si se comparan con los de enero del año pasado.
 
El IPP (índice de precios al productor) para el mes de enero, registró un incremento de 1,20 por ciento. Los productos de la actividad agrícola registraron un cambio en los precios de 3,78 por ciento. Los bienes exportados, una variación registrada el mes de enero de 0,79 por ciento y en los últimos doce meses de 4,44 puntos porcentuales.
 
Los precios de las materias primas subieron 3,3 por ciento en un mes, destacándose las alzas de los productos agrícolas y 10,0 por ciento en relación al mismo mes del año anterior.
 
Por otra parte la inflación al consumidor en Gran Bretaña duplicó la meta fijada por el Banco de Inglaterra (BOE) en enero, lo que aumentó la presión para que suban las tasas de interés que muchos inversores apuestan a que suceda en mayo.
 
La Oficina Nacional de Estadísticas informó que la tasa de inflación al consumidor subió al 4 por ciento en enero, por encima del 3,7 por ciento de diciembre.
 
El Índice de Precios al Consumidor (IPC) subió un 0,1 por ciento en el mes, y anotó su primer aumento registrado entre diciembre y enero. El cálculo de la inflación de los precios minoristas contempla más gastos hogareños y se usa como referencia para muchos acuerdos salariales; subió al 5,1 por ciento, su máximo desde mayo de 2010.
 
El aumento fue impulsado por la subida de los precios del petróleo y un aumento de los impuestos indirectos, y refleja que la inflación estuvo al menos 1 punto porcentual por encima del objetivo del 2 por ciento fijado por el BOE por más de un año.
 
El Gobernador del BOE, Mervyn King, señaló que la tasa de inflación por encima de la meta obedece a una serie de factores extraordinarios, como el alza del Impuesto al Valor Agregado (IVA), la depreciación de la libra esterlina y la escalada de las materias primas.
 
El IPC de China aumentó 4,9 por ciento en enero respecto al mismo mes del pasado año; tres décimas más que en diciembre, informó el Buró Nacional de Estadísticas (BNE).
 
Especialmente alarmante es la subida de los alimentos, que fue del 10,3% en el primer mes del año con respecto al mismo mes de 2010, y fue el principal factor en la subida de precios.
 
En noviembre de 2010, la inflación se disparó hasta el 5,1 por ciento, la cifra más alta de los últimos 30 meses, tras lo cual Pekín lanzó medidas para contener los precios.
 
El BNE también publicó el Índice de Precios de Producción, indicador de la inflación en las ventas al por mayor, que aumentó a un mayor ritmo (6,6 por ciento) en enero, 0,9 puntos más que en el último mes de 2010.
 
El mercado de Brasil la semana pasada elevó sus previsiones para la inflación este año desde el 5,66 por ciento al 5,75 por ciento, según el sondeo semanal Focus del Banco Central entre entidades financieras divulgado el lunes.
 
En reciente pronóstico de Saxo Bank expresa: “Terminó 2010 con fuerza, porque el dinero barato y la mejora de las perspectivas espolearon a las materias primas cíclicas como los metales básicos y los productos del sector de la energía. Los contratiempos climáticos durante el año han dejado los suministros mundiales de productos agrícolas bajo mínimos que dificultan la satisfacción de la demanda, allanando así el camino a nuevas subidas de precios”.

“Los precios de las materias primas se perfilan para seguir subiendo durante el primer semestre de 2011, con posibilidades de registrar rentabilidades de dos dígitos en el índice TR Jefferies CRB. Se espera que la demanda de los mercados emergentes como China, Brasil y la India siga siendo fuerte, mientras que los signos incipientes de recuperación en EE.UU. van a intensificar la competencia por los recursos básicos”.
 
Los precios globales de los alimentos llegaron al récord en enero, y el reciente tiempo catastrófico en todo el mundo podría presionar aún más los costos, tema que ya se convirtió en uno de los factores detrás de las protestas en Oriente Medio.
 
Con el séptimo aumento mensual consecutivo, el índice de los precios de los alimentos de la Organización para la Alimentación y la Agricultura de la ONU (FAO), alcanzó una cifra récord desde que comenzaron los registros en 1990. "La nueva cifra muestra claramente que la presión al alza sobre los precios mundiales de los alimentos no cede. Estos altos precios probablemente persistan en los próximos meses", dijo el economista de la FAO, Abdolreza Abbassian.
 
Una serie de eventos climáticos que afectaron a cultivos clave probablemente mantenga la presión sobre los precios de los alimentos, mientras un enorme ciclón castigó a Australia, una tormenta invernal mayor azota al cinturón de granos de Estados Unidos y las inundaciones sumergen a Malasia.
 
La sequía del año pasado en el Mar Negro, las fuertes lluvias en Australia, el tiempo seco en Argentina y el anticipo de una subida de la demanda tras los disturbios en África del Norte y Oriente Medio ya han elevado el precio del trigo a su máximo en dos años y medio.
 
Una combinación de precios altos del petróleo y los combustibles, creciente uso de biocombustibles, mal tiempo y un despegue de los mercados de futuros hizo subir los precios de los alimentos en 2007-2008, desatando protestas violentas en países como Egipto, Camerún y Haití.
 
"El suministro no va a lucir mejor que ahora hasta que sepamos qué está ocurriendo (con los cultivos en los principales productores) más adelante en el año", dijo Abbassian.
 
Janis Huebner, economista del banco alemán DekaBank, dijo que la inflación, en parte provocada por el aumento de los precios de los alimentos, podría a su vez derivar en alzas de tasas de interés en varios países este año. "Esto podría significar una desaceleración del crecimiento en los países que eleven sus tasas de interés", dijo. "Y podría involucrar a los países asiáticos y de otras regiones, frenando un poco el crecimiento, aunque no preveo un aterrizaje forzoso".
 
Durante la crisis de los precios de los alimentos de 2007-2008, el Banco Mundial (BM) estimó que unas 870 millones de personas en los países en vías de desarrollo pasaban hambre o estaban desnutridas. La FAO estima que ese número ha crecido a 925 millones.
 
El BM agrega que los precios de los alimentos se encuentran en niveles peligrosos, y su repunte en los últimos meses provocó un incremento de 44 millones en el número de personas en condición de pobreza extrema.
 
En Latinoamérica, los bancos centrales enfrentan un gran reto con la inflación al alza, impulsada por choques externos de oferta, y una apreciación de las divisas, generada principalmente por el arribo de capitales especulativos o efecto dólar.
 
El alza de las materias primas básicas, y en general, continúan cada vez más trasladándose a los consumidores.
 
El impacto del alza de los precios del acero en Estados Unidos está comenzando a filtrarse a través de la cadena de suministro, lo que ha llevado a las compañías que compran y procesan acero a incrementar sus propios precios, a acumular inventarios en anticipación a alzas adicionales y a elevar los volúmenes para contrarrestar el incremento de los costos.
 
Caterpillar Inc., el mayor fabricante mundial de equipos para construcción y minería, espera un aumento de los volúmenes de ventas y posibles alzas de sus propios productos para compensar el encarecimiento de los costos del acero que representan casi 20 por ciento del total de gastos en materiales.
 
La embotelladora multinacional Pepsi ofreció un panorama sombrío para este año, al pronosticar que será difícil traspasar a los consumidores el aumento en los precios de las materias primas, y el grupo francés Danone informó que la demanda es sólida y planea subir los precios para absorber los aumentos de sus materias primas.
 
El banco J.P. Morgan disminuyó sus pronósticos para la compañía Wal-Mart Stores Inc., la mayor cadena de alimentos mundial, por correr el riesgo de perder clientes a medida que los consumidores de bajos ingresos recurran a las tiendas de descuento.
 
Desde México se reporta que el acelerado incremento en el precio del petróleo, y por ende de la turbosina, se está convirtiendo en un factor de riesgo o presión para todas las aerolíneas, y los boletos de parajes se encarecen. La turbosina representa en promedio el 25 por ciento de los costos totales del sector, porcentaje que puede llegar a dispararse y alcanzar entre 35 y 40 por ciento, como ocurrió para algunas empresas en 2008.
 
Las aerolíneas estadounidenses Delta y American Airlines encarecieron los boletos para los viajeros empresariales hasta en 120 dólares por viaje. Es el segundo aumento significativo de tarifas en semanas.
 
La inflación, en todas sus formas, provoca además mayor desempleo y por ende contracción de la economía, dando origen a un nuevo fenómeno económico denominado “contracflación”.
 
Esa combinación ocurre por primera vez en la historia, después de deflación de la Gran Depresión de los años ‘30 y la esfanflación (estancamiento económico más inflación) de los años ‘70 y ‘80.
 
Se diferencia de estas últimas porque tiene sus causas en los cambios estructurales de la economía global y además es irreversible porque las herramientas aplicables, dentro de la economía de libre mercado o neoliberalismo, para solucionar los fenómenos anteriores, sólo la agravan, creando así la peor de las situaciones posibles.
 
Dicho en otras palabras: es como echarle gasolina al incendio, y no es apagable con esas sustanciasni esos bomberos.
___________
Santiago Brugal Almanza. Periodista, jurista. Fue diplomático y miembro de la Comisión Económica de la Asamblea General de la ONU y colabora con Prensa Latina.

 
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