Una de las asignaturas pendientes de la economía argentina es combatir la pobreza. ¿Qué perfil productivo deberíamos adoptar?
Julio Riuz

Buenos Aires / Economía – Una deuda pendiente de la Argentina en su bicentenario se vincula con la pobreza, que adquirió mayor notoriedad en la década del noventa, cuando pasó de un promedio de 5% a más de 40%. El país cuenta con recursos naturales y no está superpoblado, es decir, no comparte las causas que provocan pobreza en la mayor parte del mundo. ¿Cómo se explica entonces que una tercera parte de los argentinos sea pobre?

Cuando esta verdadera llaga social toma estado mediático hay argumentos variados: desde que los pobres hacen un esfuerzo impositivo mucho mayor que los ricos, hasta la adjudicación de todos los males a la corrupción pública, pasando por la discusión sobre si para revertir la pobreza es más importante la reforma impositiva o ejecutar políticas sociales adecuadas, capaces de combatir, por ejemplo, el clientelismo, la droga y la inseguridad. Sin embargo, hay un tema central que pasa desapercibido: la vinculación entre modelo productivo y pobreza.
 
En las economías modernas la participación en las riquezas se da a través de las actividades productivas, tanto en el rol de empleador, de empleado o de trabajador independiente: la primera instancia de distribución de bienes es el acceso a un trabajo digno. Pero ¿cuáles son los trabajos remunerados dignamente? En la economía, los precios determinan en gran medida las actividades rentables, al menos en principio. Sin embargo, no todas las economías generan trabajo en igual medida, lo cual está determinado por la técnica y la tecnología. Las posibilidades de generar trabajo de un determinado “perfil productivo” encuentran evidentes límites técnicos; no es sólo cuestión de imaginario popular, voluntarismo o ideología.
 
PRODUCCIÓN AGRARIA
 
Un estudio realizado en 2003 sobre el sector agro-exportador, estimaba que el empleo generado por ese sector (incluidos empleos que son resultado de los impuestos y gastos de consumo de los trabajadores) alcanzaba al 35% del total en el país. Si bien esa estimación comporta errores que implican una sobreestimación de los números, resulta útil por dos motivos: primero, porque explicita la percepción que parte de la sociedad y también ese sector tiene de sí mismo; y segundo, porque queda claro que en un país que se limite a ser agro-exportador, al menos el 65% de los ciudadanos no encontrará trabajo digno. Ese dato cobra relevancia en un contexto en el que los precios internacionales presionan a la economía argentina hacia la especialización. Y es más grave en cuanto no se trata de una especialización agro-exportadora, sino de una especialización en un monocultivo que, comparativamente, demanda menos trabajo tanto en sus etapas agrarias como industriales. Podríamos estimar, con un cálculo optimista, que si esa presión internacional tiene éxito habrá unos quince millones de argentinos que ingresarán definitivamente al primer mundo, con ingresos, precios y consumos europeos; y el resto (veinticinco millones) ingresarán definitivamente en el cuarto mundo, porque no estarán en condiciones de pagar precios europeos por sus alimentos.
 
Este proceso no ocurrirá como en el cine catástrofe sino paulatinamente; y ya ha comenzado: basta ver la evolución de los precios de los alimentos, del stock ganadero y de la producción de trigo. El debate nacional limita la discusión a la búsqueda de culpables: el gobierno, el campo, la inmoralidad... pero el proceso de fondo es otro. El juego de intereses es claro. Pero nos importa tanto que los 40 millones de habitantes del país tengan un lugar digno en la sociedad, como poder aprovechar al máximo los precios internacionales favorables. A otros en el mundo desarrollado les conviene que la Argentina produzca barato (en términos de recursos económicos) el máximo de soja posible y no consideran entre sus problemas la cantidad de argentinos que resultarán “sobrantes”. No es casual que el cardenal Jorge Bergoglio acuñara este término y que los obispos latinoamericanos lo utilizarán durante la convocatoria de Aparecida, en Brasil, dos años atrás.
 
La causa última de la pobreza en el país radica en que el modelo económico no prevé un lugar para todos sino para muy pocos; en consecuencia, hay millones de argentinos que “sobran”.
 
Que la economía debe estar al servicio del hombre y no viceversa pareciera significar, en este caso, la necesidad de construir un perfil productivo en el que todos podamos trabajar dignamente. Es necesario “procesar” las presiones internacionales de manera que el modelo económico de nuestro país responda a las necesidades de su gente y no a las de unos pocos que pretenden acomodar el planeta de acuerdo con sus intereses. Técnicamente es posible porque las herramientas de política económica existen. Pero el desafío de alcanzar una economía inclusiva no es tarea sólo del gobierno de turno, sino también del resto de los actores políticos y económicos y de la sociedad toda.
 
VALOR AGREGADO: ¿QUÉ ES?
 
Todas las actividades económicas necesitan del aporte de otras para poder realizarse, y se conocen como “insumos” o “materias primas”. El valor agregado es ese “algo más” de riqueza que cada unidad económica genera por sobre lo que le aportaron las otras. Ese “algo más” se distribuye luego entre trabajadores (salarios), empresarios (beneficios) y los dueños de los recursos naturales y el capital (renta e intereses, respectivamente).
 
Países como Japón, Italia o Suiza, que no disponen de recursos naturales, han construido su fortaleza económica sobre la base de un alto componente de valor agregado en su producción: importan materias primas como el petróleo y desarrollan a su alrededor la industria petroquímica y de los plásticos, entre otras. También adquieren acero y aluminio para elaborar productos mucho más complejos, como vehículos y electrodomésticos. Tanto la producción de materias primas como la transformación en productos más complejos generan valor agregado. Pero cuanto más integrada está esa red, más trabajo genera en esa economía.
 
LA GENERACIÓN DE EMPLEO
 
Las respuestas a esta exigencia parecerían estar enredadas en una eterna discusión bizantina. Sucede que la economía de una nación está formada por muchos sectores que se relacionan entre sí, y la calidad de la reciprocidad de sus interacciones tiene como resultado distintos niveles de empleo. Por ejemplo, la expansión del empleo en la pampa húmeda hubiera sido muy distinta sin la presencia de un sector metalmecánico con capacidad de responder a las demandas de los productores agrícolas (en ese caso, en lugar de empleo se hubieran generado importaciones).
 
La única respuesta en este campo sería que estructuras más diversificadas y con mayor generación de valor agregado fueran más inclusivas y estables. España, por ejemplo, apostó fuerte al desarrollo de dos sectores para generar empleo: el inmobiliario y el turismo. El resultado es que luego de la crisis de 2008 la tasa de desempleo duplicó la de Italia, que tiene una estructura productiva más equilibrada.
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Julio Riuz. Artículo publicado en revista Ciudad Nueva, www.ciudadnueva.org.ar

 
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